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Technical News | GDMFX Brokerage
EUR/USD Yesterday the market stood still and the EUR/USD pair was no exception. It is a rare occasion, but not even a one pip move could be seen in any currency pair. http://www.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uplo...1-1024x657.png Technical Outlook The stalemate seen yesterday will come to an end today when the market will pick up again and the volume will slowly get back to normal. A few days ago we mentioned the horizontal channel that confines the pair and which is still holding. The lower boundary of the channel is the support formed at 1.3170 and it rejected price numerous times proving to be a strong barrier for any down movement. The upper boundary is located at the 1.3290 level of resistance. At the moment our bias is neutral on the pair but we consider that a break of either boundary of the channel is indicative of an extended move in that direction. Fundamental Outlook Although some banks are still closed, today there are some releases of economic indicators: for the Euro zone the most important are the Spanish Manufacturing PMI coming out at 08:15 am GMT and the Italian Manufacturing PMI released a half an hour later. Better than expected numbers usually strengthen the currency but the market conditions still cannot be considered normal and surprises can occur. Later, at 3:00 pm GMT the US release the ISM Manufacturing PMI, a high impact diffusion index based on the opinion of about 400 purchasing managers. The forecast is for 50.2 from a previous of 49.5. Higher values then 50.2 can strengthen the US Dollar. GBP/USD Just as expected, the pair had no movement yesterday, but the last trading day of 2012 brought a lot of bullish momentum. http://www.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uplo...2-1024x657.png Technical Outlook There is a distinct possibility for the pair to continue its strong move up touching once again the resistance formed at 1.6300. Monday many resistance levels were broken: diagonal resistance created by the down trend line, dynamic resistance created by the 200 Simple Moving Average and horizontal resistance represented by the 1.6175 level. This makes future higher prices very probable. But like we mentioned, the market is still not entirely back to normal so we recommend a lot of caution. Fundamental Outlook The only data released by the UK today is the Manufacturing PMI, scheduled for 09:30 am GMT, with a small increase expected: 49.2 from a previous of 49.1. The index is based on about 600 surveyed purchasing managers and it usually has a hefty impact on the market. The US event mentioned earlier will also affect the GBP/USD pair. Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan The article above is based on the writer’s 4 year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view on the market. |
2013.01.03: Another day inside the channel?
EUR/USD Almost immediately after the opening of the market, the EUR/USD shot up for about 100 pips and price touched the upper boundary of the channel that we talked about before rebounding hard and traveling the whole distance back towards the lower boundary of the channel. http://www.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uplo...1-1024x657.png Technical Outlook Lately the horizontal channel seems to be the main technical aspect of the market and price has almost text book reactions when it touches either one of its boundaries. We mentioned this before but the upper boundary of the channel is represented by the resistance formed at 1.3290 and the lower boundary is formed by the support level at 1.3170. If the channel will still contain the pair and the current break of the lower boundary is a false one, then it is most likely that we will see today a rally into higher territory. Of course a real break is not out of the question and if that occurs, we expect an extended move down. Fundamental Outlook Today’s fundamental side of the market will be influenced to some extent by the German and Spanish Unemployment Change numbers coming out early in the morning but they are not considered to be high impact economic indicators. Lower numbers are good for the Euro because an economy with less unemployed people is considered a thriving one. The main fundamental events today come from the United States in the form of the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (anticipated 134K from a previous of 118K), released at 1:15 pm GMT and the Unemployment Claims which will be released 15 minutes later (anticipated 356K form previous 350K). In the case of the first indicator, higher numbers than expected are good for the currency and for the second indicator, lower numbers are likely to strengthen the currency. The final event that we must keep an eye on comes late at 7:00 pm GMT and it’s the FOMC Meeting Minutes, containing a detailed explanation of the reasons that influenced the FOMC members’ vote on the US interest rate. GBP/USD What appeared to be a true break of the resistance formed at 1.6300 turned out to be just a false one, followed by a substantial move down, below the mentioned resistance. http://www.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uplo...2-1024x657.png Technical Outlook Lately the momentum has been strongly bullish for the pair but the recent drop makes our technical view almost neutral. It appears that no clear direction can be established and we recommend caution when trading the GBP/USD, at least until further developments. If price continues down, the level of 1.6175 could provide some support, but sudden moves to the upside (towards 1.6300 again) are not out of the question. Fundamental Outlook The most important economic indicator released today for the British Pound is the Construction PMI (09:30 am GMT), with a slight increase being anticipated: 49.6 from a previous of 49.3. It is an index based on the opinions of about 170 Purchasing Managers and better than expected numbers can strengthen the GBP, driving the pair higher. All the US data mentioned earlier will impact our analyzed pair. Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan The article above is based on the writer’s 4 year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view on the market. |
2013.01.04: The big fall begins
EUR/USD Yesterday we experienced a text book break of the lower boundary of the horizontal channel that contained the pair for the last period. After the break, price re-tested the support turned resistance and then continued lower, exhibiting clear seller control over the market. http://www.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uplo...1-1024x657.png Technical Outlook Our bias on the pair is bearish at the moment and we base this on the recent break of the support formed at 1.3170 and also the decisive break of the 1.3140 support. Both are now resistance once again, confirmed by the re-test seen after the break. The next important support level is located at 1.3020 and although we don’t expect it to be hit today, we consider that to be the next short term target for the EUR/USD pair. As always, we must be aware of surprise moves above 1.3170 which would be indicative of indecision in the market, not necessarily an uptrend. http://www.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uplo...2-1024x657.png Fundamental Outlook The attention today is focused on the United States as we expect the always important release of the Non – Farm Employment Change numbers at 1:30 pm GMT. Actual numbers higher than the expected ones are indicative of economic stability and even growth which usually translates into a strong currency for the country. Today’s expected number is 150K from a previous of 146K. At the same time, the US Unemployment Rate is released, but no change is expected: 7.7% from previous 7.7%. If the value will drop, that will be positively reflected in the currency. The final release of the day concerning the US Dollar is the ISM Non Manufacturing PMI (3:00 pm GMT) and a small decrease is expected: 54.2 from the previous of 54.7. Higher numbers than 54.2 can strengthen the US Dollar and drive the pair lower. GBP/USD The pair had a downward trajectory, just like its sister pair, EUR/USD. The support at 1.6175 crumbled under the pressure of the sellers and at the moment price is sitting on the support formed at 1.6140. http://www.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uplo...3-1024x657.png Technical Outlook The bulls seem to have no answer at the moment and we expect lower prices for the pair. The level to watch is 1.6175 because it was not re-tested and another small move up to touch it is possible. In the event that price does not move up to touch the broken support turned resistance, the 200 Simple Moving Average could provide some support for the pair. Fundamental Outlook Our analyzed pair will be affected today by the UK Services PMI released at 09:30 am GMT. The value is expected to increase slightly (50.4 from a previous of 50.2) but the Pound will probably strengthen only if the value will be higher than 50.4. The important US events mentioned above will have a hefty impact on our pair as well. Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan The article above is based on the writer’s 4 year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view on the market. |
2013.01.07: The ingredients for a break of support are present
EUR/USD The anticipated drop for the pair occurred and price touched the support formed at 1.3020, although it didn’t re-test the broken level of 1.3140 like we expected. A bounce into up was then experienced, resulting in a higher close of the day. http://www.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uplo...1-1024x657.png Technical Outlook The move up seen during Friday’s trading session does not change our bearish sentiment on the pair and we consider it a much needed retracement after such a big fall. Price dropped almost 300 pips in just two days so the sellers are in control of the market at the moment but probably profit taking at the 1.3020 support pushed price higher (the process of closing a sell trade implies buying). At the moment price shows a small rejection from the 50 period Simple Moving Average and Bearish Divergence is present so this could be a good place for the retracement to end and the down trend to resume. We are not dismissing any moves higher but we find them less probable. Fundamental Outlook Mondays are usually slow in terms of economic indicators releases and today the only events that could affect the pair come from the Euro zone in the form of the Sentix Investor Confidence and the Producer Price Index. Usually both these indicators have a very light impact on the market and sometimes can even go unnoticed by traders, but surprising numbers could generate some movement. No data concerning the US Dollar is scheduled for release today. GBP/USD Since the false break of the strong resistance established at 1.6300, the pair has been in a clear and strong downtrend, apparently breaking the support at 1.6040 during Friday’s trading session before retracing above it. http://www.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uplo...2-1024x657.png Technical Outlook Although price at the moment sits above support, we consider that today another attempt at breaking it will occur. The fact that price could not break the 1.6040 level on the first attempt is not indicative of downtrend weakness, but rather a short term seller exhaustion and some profit taking, just like we mentioned on our EUR/USD technical outlook. The Hidden Bearish Divergence is present in the GBP/USD pair as well and we expect a down trend resumption during today’s trading session. Fundamental Outlook The only notable economic indicator released today for the British Pound is the Halifax House Price Index, coming out at 08:00 am GMT with an expected decrease from a previous of 1.0% to 0.2%. Actual numbers higher than 0.2% could strengthen the Pound and drive the pair higher, but this indicator is not known as a strong market mover so we don’t expect major moves to be generated by its release. Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan The article above is based on the writer’s 4 year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view on the market. |
2013.01.08: The support levels still have strength
EUR/USD During yesterday’s trading session, the pair had another clash with the support created at 1.3020 and so far it looks like we are not going to see price moving below this level. The European Sentix investor Confidence was announced at -7.0, much better than the expected -13.7 and although it is not a high impact indicator, it helped the Euro in its upward path. http://www.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uplo...1-1024x657.png Technical Outlook We maintain our bearish bias on the pair and we consider that this move up lacks the power to break any strong resistance levels. A good place for the sellers to take back control of the market is the resistance created at 1.3170, seen on the four hour chart above. On the downside, the support at 1.3020 remains crucial and a possible break will probably generate more seller pressure and consequently, lower prices. Fundamental Outlook Today no high impact economic indicators are released for either the Euro or the US Dollar. The only scheduled releases worth mentioning are the Euro zone Retail Sales, coming out at 10:00 am GMT, with an increase expected (0.5% from a previous of -1.2%) and the Euro zone Unemployment Rate, coming out at the same time, with a very small increase anticipated: 11.8% from 11.7%. For the retail Sales, higher numbers are likely to strengthen the currency and the opposite applies for the Unemployment Rate. GBP/USD The two pairs have been highly correlated during the last period so the movement of the GBP/USD was quite similar yesterday to the one of the EUR/USD, making another attempt at breaking the support before retracing higher. http://www.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uplo...2-1024x657.png Technical Outlook It seems like price is headed into resistance again and a good place to see if the move up really has some power is at the resistance zone of 1.6130 – 1.6140. If that zone is surpassed, the next hurdle will be 1.6175. On the down side, 1.6040 remains extremely important for future direction and a valid break would be indicative of down trend resumption. Fundamental Outlook The UK doesn’t release any economic indicators today that could affect the pair and neither do the United States. It appears that today’s movement will be driven by the technical aspect of the market. Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan The article above is based on the writer’s 4 year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view on the market. |
2013.01.09: Possibly a deciding day for near-future direction
EUR/USD Although we anticipated a reversal once the resistance at 1.3170 is touched, the bulls ran out of steam before that happened and yesterday’s trading session was dominated by the bears. However, the support at 1.3020 was in not broken or even touched. http://www.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uplo...1-1024x657.png Technical Outlook Today we anticipate more down side movement and a possible break of the important support level created at 1.3020. However, from an hourly chart perspective, the Relative Strength Index is close to the oversold level so we might see a small move up before price reaches support. That move up will probably clear the oversold condition of the RSI. Fundamental Outlook The fundamental scene is quiet today, just like the first two days of the week and no major economic, financial or political data comes out. Euro zone’s only notable economic indicator is the German Industrial Production, released at 11:00 am GMT. It measures economic health from an industrial perspective and for today’s release an increase is expected, from a previous of -2.6% to 1.1%. Values higher than 1.1% could strengthen the Euro, but keep in mind that it is not a high impact indicator and sometimes its release goes unnoticed by traders. The United States announce their Oil Inventories at 3:30 pm GMT but this indicator is more likely to influence Oil price rather than our currency pairs; however, extreme values can produce volatility for our pair. GBP/USD The pair made a sharp turn exactly at the 1.6130 resistance and until evening, it traveled the distance back to the support located at 1.6040. http://www.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uplo...2-1024x657.png Technical Outlook This is the third attempt over a short period at breaking the support at 1.6040. Usually this is indicative of high seller pressure and we favor a scenario where the 1.6040 level breaks and opens the door for lower prices. The Relative Strength Index is close to the oversold territory and a small move up is possible but not necessarily needed. Alternatively, the pair could remain between support and resistance for today’s trading session. Fundamental Outlook The only economic indicator that affects the British Pound directly is the UK Trade Balance, released at 09:30 am GMT, with a forecast of -9.0B from a previous of -9.5B. The trade balance is the difference between exports and imports and better than expected numbers are good for the analyzed currency. It tends to have a mild impact in the market but surprising numbers can create volatility. The pair will also be affected to some extent by the US events mentioned earlier. Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan The article above is based on the writer’s 4 year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view on the market. |
2013.01.10: Today’s movement – entirely driven by Bank Rates?
EUR/USD The pair moved into lower territory yesterday, validating our bearish scenario but the support at 1.3020 is still at a comfortable distance away especially since in the second part of the trading session, price had a hefty retracement to the up side, close to the down trend line drawn from this year’s high. http://www.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uplo...1-1024x657.png Technical Outlook Once again, we are biased towards the bear side and we believe that lower prices are still ahead for the pair. If price bounces lower from the trend line that we mentioned, a break of the support at 1.3020 is most probable. If the pair moves up, it will encounter some minor resistance at 1.3090 which coincides with the 50 period Simple Moving Average on an hourly chart. Fundamental Outlook Today’s headline is definitely the Euro Minimum Bid Rate announced at 12:45 pm GMT, with no change anticipated (0.75%) and followed by the always important ECB Press Conference 45 minutes later. As usual, Mario Draghi, the President of the European Central Bank will give opening remarks regarding the reasons that influenced the rate change or why they kept it unchanged and afterwards, he will answer journalists’ questions. The ECB Press Conference usually creates volatility and the attitude of the President decides direction: if he is hawkish in his speech and answers, the Euro is likely to strengthen and on the other hand, a dovish attitude is detrimental to the single currency. The US Unemployment Claims come out at 1:30 pm GMT, but are likely to be overshadowed by the ECB Press Conference. A decrease is expected, from 372K to 361K. GBP/USD After briefly retracing into higher territory during the first part of yesterday’s trading session, the pair broke the support located at 1.6040 and at the moment price is heading up once again in what appears to be a re-test of the broken support. http://www.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uplo...2-1024x657.png Technical Outlook We expected this break of the support at 1.6040 and we consider it indicative of a continued move down, but if price doesn’t just re-test the broken level and instead returns above it, a ranging period could begin. However, we favor a scenario where the pair moves lower, but we must be aware of the underlying strength of the buyers. Today’s important fundamental events will probably give us an answer related to future direction. Fundamental Outlook The UK also releases today their Official Bank Rate, at 12:00 pm GMT and volatility will be created by the announcement even though no change is expected (0.50%). When the rate is changed the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) releases a Rate Statement, outlining the economic and financial reasons that lead to the Rate modification. Usually if no change is made to the Official Bank Rate, the MPC Statement will not be released. Like we mentioned in our EUR/USD outlook, the US Unemployment Claims numbers are announced at 1:30 pm GMT and this fact will affect the GBP/USD pair as well. Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan The article above is based on the writer’s 4 year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view on the market. |
2013.01.11: “We have signs that fragmentation is being gradually repaired” – Mario Draghi, ECB President
EUR/USD The statement above and other positive comments made by the European Central Bank President, Mario Draghi launched the pair into higher territory and resulted in a decisive break of both 1.3090 and 1.3170 resistance levels, exposing the strong resistance located at 1.3290. Yesterday’s technical outlook proved to be wrong, and the recent move confirms once more the fact that important fundamental events can overthrow any technical aspects. http://www.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uplo...1-1024x657.png Technical Outlook After such a powerful move up, we consider that the bulls are in complete control of the market and they will push price even higher after a retracement. The Relative Strength Index is in extreme overbought territory at the moment so a retracement is likely to occur, generated also by some profit taking and closure of existing positions. After that potential retracement, price is likely to touch or even break the important resistance at 1.3290. Fundamental Outlook The Euro zone doesn’t announce any high impact indicators today but the momentum created by Draghi’s hawkish comments is likely to drive the pair higher. The United States release their Trade Balance at 1:30 pm GMT (the difference between exports and imports) and if the value is higher than the anticipated -41.1B (previous was -42.2B), we could experience some US Dollar strength. GBP/USD The pair was affected by Mario Draghi’s comments but not to the same extent as the EUR/USD was. However, the bulls controlled the market throughout the whole day and the US Dollar had little strength against the Pound sterling. http://www.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uplo...2-1024x657.png Technical Outlook We expect the pair to break the resistance created at 1.6130 and head into the next level of resistance located at 1.6200. This period is characterized by high positive correlation between the two pairs and since the US Dollar is weak, the resistance levels lose strength. The Relative Strength Index is showing an overbought condition so we anticipate a small retracement before the pair can move higher. Fundamental Outlook The most important economic indicator that will affect the British Pound directly today is the Manufacturing Production released at 09:30 am GMT. An increase is anticipated, from the previous of – 1.3% to 0.6%. Higher values than expected usually strengthen the Pound and could drive the pair higher. The US Trade Balance that we mentioned earlier is likely to affect the GBP/USD pair as well. Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan The article above is based on the writer’s 4 year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view on the market. |
2013.01.14: Sky high
EUR/USD The strong bullish momentum pushed the pair higher once more during Friday’s trading session and the resistance zone created around 1.3290 – 1.3300 was decisively broken. The US Trade Balance was announced at -48.7B, a lot worse than anticipated (-41.1B) and it definitely contributed to the weakening of the US Dollar. http://www.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uplo...1-1024x657.png Technical Outlook Fundamental Outlook GBP/USD Friday was a day with no clear direction for the GBP/USD pair and although it broke the resistance located at 1.6130, during the day it hovered above and below it, finishing the week just a few pips above. http://www.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uplo...2-1024x657.png Technical Outlook Fundamental Outlook |
2013.01.15: Bounce or Break?
EUR/USD The resistance level of 1.3380 was touched during today’s trading session and briefly broken but the bulls didn’t have enough power to keep price above it and price slowly retraced under resistance. The Euro zone Industrial Production numbers came out lower than expected, at -0.3% from a forecast of 0.2% but we don’t attribute the small retracement to those worse than expected values. http://www.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uplo...1-1024x657.png Technical Outlook Fundamental Outlook GBP/USD The two analyzed pairs seem to move out of correlation lately and yesterday we saw the GBP/USD fall significantly lower compared to the EUR/USD after failing to maintain itself above the level of 1.6130. http://www.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uplo...2-1024x657.png Technical Outlook Fundamental Outlook |
2013.01.16 : A direction will finally be decided today?
EUR/USD The Pair tried two times yesterday to break the resistance level of 1.3380 and failed, resulting in a move lower and even a clash late in the evening with the support zone created around 1.3290. Both the US Retail Sales and the Core Retail Sales came out better than expected, strengthening the US Dollar, while the Producer Price Index was lower than anticipated, although the difference was almost insignificant: actual -0.2% from an anticipated value of -0.1%. http://www.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uplo...1-1024x657.png Technical Outlook Fundamental Outlook GBP/USD The pair remained under the resistance level of 1.6130 and had a rather hard to predict movement throughout the day. UK’s CPI (Consumer Price Index) that was announced today remained unchanged (2.7%), as anticipated and that contributed probably to the sideways movement experienced. http://www.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uplo...2-1024x657.png Technical Outlook Fundamental Outlook |
2013.01.17 : Trading in Mixed Market
EUR/USD The pair makes intraday trading difficult and shows no signals of a clear direction as yesterday it hovered almost all day around the S/R zone of 1.3290 – 1.3300. The US Core Consumer Price Index posted a small decrease from an expected value of 0.2% to 0.1% but not a lot of volatility was generated at the time of release and overall we had a slow, ranging and hard to trade session. http://www.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uplo...1-1024x657.png Technical Outlook Fundamental Outlook GBP/USD Throughout the day the pair had an overall bearish movement and even appeared to break the strong support formed at 1.6000. At the moment price action offers no clear indication about a clear break or a false one because the pair is hovering close to the mentioned S/R level. http://www.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uplo...2-1024x657.png Technical Outlook Fundamental Outlook |
2013.01.18 : Currency wars – Can a winner emerge today?
EUR/USD The pair is finally showing some volatility and clear direction. The buyers that gathered around the support level of 1.3290 proved to be stronger than the sellers and they won the battle, at least for yesterday’s trading session. http://www.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uplo...1-1024x657.png Technical Outlook Fundamental Outlook GBP/USD It seems like the correlation between the two pairs gets thinner and thinner as the GBP/USD pair moved significantly lower today and broke the support located at 1.6000. http://www.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uplo...2-1024x657.png Technical Outlook Fundamental Outlook |
2013.01.21: CHANNEL BREAKOUT
EUR/USD After the strong move up generated by Mario Draghi’s hawkish remarks the pair started to move inside a horizontal channel, forming a consolidation pattern. During Friday’s trading session the sellers controlled the market and brought price down for another touch of the lower boundary of the channel (1.3290). http://www.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uplo...1-1024x657.png Technical Outlook Fundamental Outlook USD After the break and re-test of the support level located at 1.6000, Throughout Friday’s trading session price moved strongly to the down side and the buyers seemed to be completely overpowered. http://www.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uplo...2-1024x657.png Technical Outlook Fundamental Outlook |
2013.01.22: Slow Monday is gone. It’s time for some movement
EUR/USD Throughout yesterday’s trading session neither the bulls nor the bears had control over the pair’s direction and it appeared almost like none of them truly wanted to obtain it. Price moved in a 30 pip range, the market seemed to completely lack any directional bias and a break of a channel border was out of the question. http://www.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uplo...1-1024x657.png Technical Outlook Fundamental Outlook GBP/USD Unlike the EUR/USD pair, the GBP/USD continued to move lower after a small retracement and touched the support at 1.5825 late in the London trading session. http://www.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uplo...2-1024x657.png Technical Outlook Fundamental Outlook |
2013.01.23 : The greenback failed again to break support. What’s next?
EUR/USD We anticipated movement, but the roller – coaster that proved to be yesterday’s trading session was definitely a surprise. This kind of trading session is rarely seen and it is definitely not what we call normal, with price falling 100 pips, rising another hundred and then falling again. http://www.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uplo...1-1024x657.png Technical Outlook Fundamental Outlook GBP/USD The pair had a more calm movement but it wasn’t an easy ride all the way as it had some swift turns that could trap traders. http://www.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uplo...2-1024x657.png Technical Outlook Fundamental Outlook |
2013.01.24 : A breakout will clear the indecision
EUR/USD During yesterday’s trading session, price action confirmed the down trend line that we talked about in our previous article, touching it for the third time and bouncing lower. However, the US Dollar again failed to break the strong support zone created between 1.3290 and 1.3270 http://www.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uplo...1-1024x657.png Technical Outlook Fundamental Outlook GBP/USD The recent down trend has certainly slowed down and during yesterday’s trading session the pair tried again to break support but failed. http://www.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uplo...2-1024x657.png Technical Outlook Fundamental Outlook |
2013.01.25 : The correlation between the two pairs is almost gone
EUR/USD Finally the chart moved in a single direction for the most part of the day and the pair showed some decision throughout yesterday’s trading session, breaking the down trend line to the up side. Almost all the economic data released yesterday for the Euro zone posted better than anticipated numbers and this certainly helped the Euro in its upward path. http://www.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uplo...1-1024x657.png Technical Outlook Fundamental Outlook GBP/USD It seems like the correlation between the two pairs is almost gone judging by yesterday’s totally different movement displayed on the charts and the break of support located at 1.5825. http://www.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uplo...2-1024x657.png Technical Outlook Fundamental Outlook |
2013.01.28 : Slow Monday is here again
EUR/USD As we mentioned numerous times before, usually Monday is a slow, ranging day, but last week finished with the bulls in control of the market and maybe the upwards momentum will be maintained throughout today’s trading session as well. http://www.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uplo...1-1024x657.png Technical Outlook Fundamental Outlook GBP/USD The pair tried several times to break the support located at 1.5760 but it proved to be a task impossible to achieve and at the moment price is confined between support and resistance. http://www.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uplo...2-1024x657.png Technical Outlook Fundamental Outlook |
2013.01.29 : A day influenced by Consumer Confidence economic indicators
EUR/USD All the pair managed to do yesterday was to print a double top at 1.3477, accompanied by a lot of indecision candles. The United States posted mixed data, with the Core Durable Goods Orders coming out better than expected (actual 1.3%, forecast 0.8%) and the Pending Home Sales worse than expected (actual -4.3%, forecast 0.5%) and this contributed to the ranging movement experienced throughout the trading session. http://www.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uplo...1-1024x657.png Technical Outlook Fundamental Outlook GBP/USD The horizontal channel that we talked about yesterday was broken and price moved significantly lower in spite of the fact that Mondays are usually slow days. http://www.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uplo...2-1024x657.png Technical Outlook Fundamental Outlook |
2013.01.30 : All eyes on the FOMC Statement
EUR/USD The double top formed at 1.3477 was broken during yesterday’s session and price continued its rally towards the resistance at 1.3500. The CB Consumer Confidence value came out worse than expected, weakening the US Dollar and contributing to the pair’s bullish movement. http://www.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uplo...1-1024x657.png Technical Outlook Fundamental Outlook GBP/USD The pair had a single direction throughout the day and finally, after a pretty long time, it moved similar to the EUR/USD so we might see a restored positive correlation between the two pairs. http://www.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uplo...2-1024x657.png Technical Outlook Fundamental Outlook |
2013.01.31 : Resistance is broken. What’s next?
EUR/USD Yesterday all market moves were dictated by the bulls and the bears had almost no power and couldn’t do almost anything to stop the strong rally. The resistance at 1.3500 was clearly broken, followed by a re-test (seen on the 15 minute chart below) and a consequent move up. The US Federal Funds Rate remained unchanged and the FOMC Statement didn’t have the anticipated impact. http://www.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uplo...1-1024x657.png Technical Outlook Fundamental Outlook GBP/USD The pair had a bullish day as well, just like the EUR/USD and the correlation between the two pairs seems to be almost restored. The resistance at 1.5760 was broken early in the morning and price continued on a constant upward path, moving close to 1.5825. http://www.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uplo...2-1024x657.png Technical Outlook Fundamental Outlook |
2013.02.01 : Today’s market mover: US Non-Farm Employment Change
EUR/USD After a retracement into lower territory, which also cleared the overbought condition of the Relative Strength Index, the pair started to move higher again, breaking the previous peak but posing no threat to the resistance located at 1.3650. The US Unemployment Claims came out worse than expected, at 368K from an anticipated number of 362K, weakening the US Dollar and contributing to the pair’s bullish movement. http://www.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uplo...1-1024x657.png Technical Outlook Fundamental Outlook GBP/USD Yesterday the pair had a mixed trading session during its first half but the British Pound ultimately managed to finish the day higher, breaking the resistance at 1.5825 and closing above it. http://www.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uplo...2-1024x657.png Technical Outlook Fundamental Outlook |
2013.02.04 : Trend consolidation ahead?
EUR/USD Friday was a mixed day for the EUR/USD pair, mostly due to the US Non – Farm Employment Change numbers that created a lot of volatility and a strong whipsaw, resulting in a difficult trading environment. http://www.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uplo...1-1024x657.png Technical Outlook Fundamental Outlook GBP/USD Unlike EUR/USD, the GBP/USD had a unidirectional trading session Friday and dropped violently for almost 200 pips, reigniting the downtrend http://www.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uplo...2-1024x657.png Technical Outlook Fundamental Outlook |
2013.02.05 : Trading close to support
EUR/USD The pair dropped almost the entire duration of yesterday’s trading session, breaking Friday’s low established at 1.3585 and even making a run for the strong support at 1.3500. Even the fact that the Spanish Unemployment numbers came out better than expected (132.1K from a predicted 150K) didn’t stop the bearish momentum so we might see a touch of 1.3500. http://www.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uplo...1-1024x657.png Technical Outlook Fundamental Outlook GBP/USD The two pairs seem almost negatively correlated because yesterday while EUR/USD was dropping, GBP/USD was rising at a steady pace, even touching in the evening the resistance level of 1.5760. http://www.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uplo...2-1024x657.png Technical Outlook Fundamental Outlook |
2013.02.06 : The two analyzed pairs move further apart
EUR/USD After a brief dip below the support level at 1.3500, the pair quickly started to move towards the resistance at 1.3585 and tested it in the second part of yesterday’s trading session shifting the bias once more towards the bull side of the market. http://www.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uplo...1-1024x657.png Technical Outlook Fundamental Outlook GBP/USD After a sharp rise and a break above the resistance at 1.5760 early yesterday morning, the pair dropped for the rest of the trading session and broke the support at 1.5675, resulting in another day controlled by the bears. http://www.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uplo...2-1024x657.png Technical Outlook Fundamental Outlook |
2013.02.07 : Main event of the day – the ECB Press Conference
EUR/USD After a prolonged stay on the resistance at 1.3585, price failed to break it and chose the only other possible direction: down towards the support at 1.3500. But it looked like that support was also too strong for price to break and probably the lack of any economic indicators was the reason why the pair moved between the two levels. http://www.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uplo...1-1024x657.png Technical Outlook Fundamental Outlook GBP/USD The pair had a slow and sideways movement, failing to break the resistance at 1.5675 or to make an attempt at touching the support at 1.5600 so just the first part of our scenario came true: the touch of resistance. http://www.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uplo...2-1024x657.png Technical Outlook Fundamental Outlook |
2013.02.08 : The Euro sell-off
EUR/USD As the President of the European Central Bank spoke, the euro dropped for about 200 hundred pips. His opinion that a strong Euro could be detrimental for further economic recovery triggered the sell off and traders all around the world joined the ride down. http://www.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uplo...1-1024x657.png Technical Outlook Fundamental Outlook GBP/USD The Official Bank rate remained unchanged as expected and no major surprises came from the UK; as a result the pair moved mostly sideways at the time of the GBP Rate announcement and was not influenced by Draghi’s comments or the Euro sell off. The move up seen yesterday at 10:00 am GMT was triggered by the speech delivered in front of the Treasury Select Committee by the BoE Governor Designate (starting July 2013) Mark Carney. http://www.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uplo...2-1024x657.png Technical Outlook Fundamental Outlook |
2013.02.11 : A bear controlled market
EUR/USD Friday was a slow day for the pair compared to the strong movement experienced Thursday but that is often experienced after a high volatility trading session as most traders exit their positions or decrease their exposure. http://www.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uplo...1-1024x657.png Technical Outlook Fundamental Outlook GBP/USD The pair moved consistently higher throughout Friday’s trading session and retraced lower late in the evening after touching the resistance at 1.5825. http://www.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uplo...2-1024x657.png Technical Outlook Fundamental Outlook |
2013.02.12 : Deciding market direction
EUR/USD Yesterday was a slow day in terms of distance traveled by price and the main move of the day occurred in the second part of the London trading session when the pair made an attempt to break the resistance at 1.3400. The surge up was generated by Jens Weidmann’s (Head of the Bundesbank) comments: “Latest indicators don’t signal a serious overvaluation of the Euro despite its recent appreciation”. http://www.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uplo...1-1024x657.png Technical Outlook Fundamental Outlook GBP/USD The resistance created at 1.5825 proved to be too strong for the pair to break yesterday and price fell, touching the support located at 1.5675, resulting in a bear controlled trading session. http://www.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uplo...2-1024x657.png Technical Outlook Fundamental Outlook |
2013.02.13 : Bad luck for the US Dollar or for the Euro?
EUR/USD Yesterday the pair broke the resistance located at 1.3400, showing us that underlying buyer strength is still present. Mario Draghi’s speech occurred at 2:30 pm GMT, not at 3:30 pm GMT as it was first announced but nonetheless, it didn’t create the expected volatility. http://www.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uplo...1-1024x657.png Technical Outlook Fundamental Outlook GBP/USD Yesterday’s Consumer Price Index anticipated value was revised from 2.8% to 2.7% and no change was posted today. The fact that the CPI value remained unchanged brought no volatility in the market at the time of the release but the pair moved above the resistance at 1.5630 which was broken early in the morning. http://www.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uplo...2-1024x657.png Technical Outlook Fundamental Outlook |
2013.02.14 : Big challenges ahead
EUR/USD Overall the pair had a mixed trading session, moving higher to touch the level of 1.3500 and then dropping once the resistance was hit. The US Retail Sales came out as expected, with a value of 0.1% from the previous of 0.5% but the Dollar strength can be attributed to some extent to the better than expected Core retail Sales: actual 0.2%, forecast 0.1% and previous 0.3%. http://www.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uplo...1-1024x657.png Technical Outlook Fundamental Outlook GBP/USD The pair plunged today on the back of BoE Governor Mervyn King’s remarks about the economy facing “big challenges”. He also expressed his concern about the fact that growth is likely to be weak and these comments drove the pair below the support located at 1.5630. http://www.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uplo...2-1024x657.png Technical Outlook Fundamental Outlook |
2013.02.15 : The G20 meetings have all the ingredients for a volatile day
EUR/USD The Euro posted a negative day, weakening against the US Dollar, a fact which resulted in a drop below the support at 1.3400 and even a new low could be seen late yesterday in the afternoon. The US Unemployment Claims came out lower than expected, strengthening the greenback and contributing to some extent to the Dollar strength. http://www.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uplo...1-1024x657.png Technical Outlook Fundamental Outlook GBP/USD The GBP/USD bears were stronger than the bulls yesterday so the pair slowly grinded its way towards 1.5500 and even managed to go below it. http://www.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uplo...2-1024x657.png Technical Outlook Fundamental Outlook |
2013.02.18 : The lack of economic data could generate sideways movement
EUR/USD Friday was characterized by a mixed trading session and the pair moved up and down for the entire period, finishing the day almost at the opening price, a fact which resulted in a daily Doji candle, signifying indecision in the market. http://www.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uplo...1-1024x657.png Technical Outlook Fundamental Outlook GBP/USD Friday’s UK Retail Sales numbers came out a lot worse than forecast, at -0.6% (expected number was 0.5%) and this negative surprise generated Pound weakness and drove the pair significantly lower. However until the end of the session, the GBP managed to regain some of the lost territory. http://www.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uplo...2-1024x657.png Technical Outlook Fundamental Outlook |
2013.02.19 : Movement expected although another slow day in terms of economic data is ahead
EUR/USD The lack of economic data combined with the fact that Mondays are usually slow days resulted in sideways price action and low volatility fro yesterday’s trading session. The US Banks were closed celebrating Presidents Day and even Mario Draghi’s speech couldn’t do much to speed things up. http://www.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uplo...1-1024x657.png Technical Outlook Fundamental Outlook GBP/USD The pair also had a trading session characterized by sideways movement and no important levels were decisively broken. http://www.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uplo...2-1024x657.png Technical Outlook Fundamental Outlook |
2013.02.20 : Both pairs are close to important S/R levels
EUR/USD After a slow start, the pair started picking up some speed in the second part of yesterday’s trading session and broke to the up side the symmetrical triangle mentioned in our previous article. The German ZEW Economic Sentiment came out much better than expected, at 48.2 (the forecast was 35.3) and contributed to the strength exhibited yesterday by the Euro. http://www.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uplo...1-1024x657.png Technical Outlook Fundamental Outlook GBP/USD After a brief rise above the trend line seen on the hourly chart below, the pair resumed its bearish movement and returned under the mentioned down trend line. http://www.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uplo...2-1024x657.png Technical Outlook Fundamental Outlook |
2013.02.21 : Major historical support for the GBP/USD
EUR/USD The pair encountered strong resistance at the 1.3430 level and dropped for almost the entire duration of yesterday’s trading session, returning below 1.3400 and under the down trend line seen on the four hour chart below. http://www.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uplo...1-1024x657.png Technical Outlook Fundamental Outlook GBP/USD The bears had a huge victory yesterday, driving the pair about 170 pips lower and breaking important support levels on the back of more quantitative easing (QE) talks. http://www.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uplo...2-1024x657.png Technical Outlook Fundamental Outlook |
2013.02.22 : Ending lower a week controlled by the bears
EUR/USD Yesterday the long term upward trend line was broken by the pair on the back of massive bearish momentum generated by the FOMC Meetings and also by the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index which came out much worse than expected, at -12.5 (forecast was modified during the day from 0.7 to 1.1). http://www.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uplo...1-1024x657.png Technical Outlook Fundamental Outlook GBP/USD The pair experienced a sell off during yesterday’s Asian session and the strong weekly support level of 1.5270 was decisively broken. This sell off was triggered by the US FOMC Meeting Minutes. http://www.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uplo...2-1024x657.png Technical Outlook Fundamental Outlook |
2013.02.25 : Major support is broken for both pairs. What’s next?
EUR/USD We had an eventful week both from a technical point of view and a fundamental one. The pair chose a downward direction and managed to close below the strong support zone created between 1.3300 and 1.3270. Also the up trend line drawn from the 24th of July 2012 was decisively broken during last week and price is now sitting close to the support located at 1.3130. http://www.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uplo...1-1024x657.png Technical Outlook Fundamental Outlook GBP/USD Last week was a very important one for our pair because a major weekly support level was breached for the first time in a long period. Talks about increasing the Asset Purchase Facility weakened the Pound and the result was a drop of about 370 pips for the entire week. http://www.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uplo...2-1024x657.png Technical Outlook Fundamental Outlook |
2013.02.26 : Who is really in control of the market?
EUR/USD The Italian Parliamentary Elections proved to be a major market mover. While in the first part of yesterday’s trading session we saw a very strong Euro, climbing up to 1.3318, in the second part of the day, the pair dropped almost all the way back to the opening price of the day. http://www.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uplo...1-1024x657.png Technical Outlook Fundamental Outlook GBP/USD The pair had a slow day comparative to the EUR/USD and opened with a big gap, which was eventually closed once price traveled the whole distance back to Friday’s close. http://www.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uplo...2-1024x657.png Technical Outlook Fundamental Outlook |
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